Roki Sasaki Study

With Roki Sasaki entering free agency, I decided it would be beneficial to conduct a short study on him. To predict Sasaki's performance, I applied the method from my NPB-to-MLB Translation study. This approach allowed me to derive the typical statistical differences between average NPB and MLB performance levels. Using these differences, I calculated Sasaki's predicted stats in MLB, providing an estimate of how his NPB performance might translate to the major leagues.

The formula predicts Sasaki will bolster a 3.54 FIP, a 33.67K%, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 3.41 ERA.

After further analysis on Sasaki's predicted stats, I sought to identify a current MLB pitcher with a similar profile to provide further insight into what we might expect from Sasaki in the majors. Dylan Cease, right-handed starter for the San Diego Padres, emerged as a compelling comparison.

Cease's 2024 performance includes a 3.1 FIP, 29.4K%, a 1.067 WHIP, and a 3.47 ERA.

These figures closely align with Sasaki's projected MLB statistics, suggesting a comparable level of effectiveness.

Additionally, both pitchers share a similar pitch repertoire, featuring a four-seam fastball, splitter, and slider. According to Baseball Savant, Cease is the closest match to Sasaki in terms of pitch arsenal.

This similarity in pitching style further supports the comparison between the two.

In summary, based on statistical projections and pitch repertoire, Dylan Cease serves as a strong MLB comparison for Roki Sasaki, providing a benchmark for the performance we might anticipate from Sasaki upon his transition to Major League Baseball.

As for Sasaki's contract, due to his age, his market value is extremely low because of the international bonus pool rules. If Sasaki were to hit the open market, he would likely command a deal worth hundreds of millions. However, under these circumstances, his AAV won't exceed $6 million, giving teams considerable leverage in negotiations due to his relatively low price.

I estimate Sasaki will secure a contract around $4 million. If he puts up numbers similar to Dylan Cease and finishes with an fWAR >= 3.5, this could translate to a surplus value of $24 million or more. Sasaki’s player profile and financial upside make him an asset that all teams should pursue—he’s simply too valuable to overlook.