Surplus Value Analysis, 2026 Season

Team Data

By combining each team's total hitter and pitcher fWAR with team AAV data from Spotrac, this database estimates the surplus value generated by all 30 MLB teams in 2026.

The Brewers, Rays, and Guardians generated the three highest surplus values in the league, despite each ranking outside the top half of MLB in total AAV. More broadly, all five of the highest-surplus teams ranked 19th or lower in AAV, illustrating how efficiently these clubs converted payroll commitments into on-field production.

Miami was another notable example. Despite ranking 15th in total fWAR, the Marlins carried the lowest AAV in baseball and finished fourth in surplus value. Conversely, the Dodgers led MLB in total fWAR but ranked only 19th in surplus value because of their league-high AAV. The Mets produced the lowest surplus value in the study, ranking second in AAV but only 20th in total fWAR.

Surplus Value = (2026 team fWAR × Price of WAR) - Total Team AAV, with $10,000,000 as the standard market value for one WAR.

Surplus Value, 2026

Player Data

Using fWAR and salary data from FanGraphs and Spotrac for active Major League players in 2026, this database highlights players who outperform their cost, closely match their financial value, or underperform relative to their salary.

Surplus value is most useful when paired with context. Injuries, missed time, role changes, and other factors can influence a player’s WAR and make the raw figure misleading on its own. For that reason, these results are meant to provide a starting point for evaluating contract efficiency rather than a final judgment on a player’s season.

Below are selected examples of findings.

Surplus Value = (2026 fWAR × Price of WAR) - Salary Obligation, with $10,000,000 as the standard market value for one WAR.

Surplus Value, 2026